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Germany's Baltic Betrayal
Published: 15 July 2008
CEPA analyst Ryan R. Miller throws the spotlight on the planned Nord Stream pipeline in the Baltic Sea. On the heels of last week's vote in the European Parliament (EP), Miller contends that the EP's focus on environmental issues masks Germany's Baltic betrayal of Central European interests. "Put bluntly, Nord Stream is a politically-motivated project designed by Moscow to squeeze Poland and the Baltic States," he asserts.
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Principled Pragmatism: Germany and NATO Expansion
Published: 15 July 2008
Dr. Patrick Keller of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Berlin argues that Germany's reluctance to grant MAP to Ukraine and Georgia should not be seen as a break with past policies, but rather as a response to changing international circumstances. He describes how a new Russia, a new geopolitical environment for Germany, and a new NATO combine to alter Berlin's attitudes towards further enlargement of the Atlantic alliance.
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Nearing a Nabucco-South Stream Merger?
Published: 15 July 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Neil Barnett posits that OMV’s decision last month to join South Stream could indicate that a Nabucco-South Stream merger is in the cards. Barnett warns that "The geopolitical implications of this growing Russian influence over Black Sea supply routes are troubling at a time when Russia’s actions and rhetoric towards Europe are increasingly bellicose."
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Lisbon Champions vs. Central European Grumblers
Published: 15 July 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Marek Świerczyński decribes how the Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty exposes divisions between the EU’s Franco-German engine and leaders in Poland and the Czech Republic. "When the smoke cleared after June 12, neither of the two Visegrad states was truly saddened by the result," Świerczyński asserts.
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Why Missile Defense is Here to Stay
Published: 01 July 2008
A. Wess Mitchell from CEPA explains why the next U.S. president, regardless of party, will understand that having a missile shield based partly in Central Europe will compliment U.S. policy towards Iran. “While keeping MD may not dramatically increase the odds that a diplomatic breakthrough [with Tehran] will occur, taking it off the table increases the odds that it won’t,” Mitchell asserts.
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The Missile Defense Distraction
Published: 01 July 2008
Peter I. Belk argues that planned missile defense sites in Central Europe are a distraction from the task of stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons – and the need to bring Russia fully on board. “By taking the high ground on missile defense, the United States can further expose the weakness of the Russian argument on Iran, while at the same time striving for a more cooperative posture with Moscow,” he contends.
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A New Phase in Hungary's Foreign Policy?
Published: 01 July 2008
Géza Jeszenszky, a former Hungarian Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the United States, outlines what Hungarian foreign policy would look like under a conservative Fidesz government. Among other points, Jeszenszky stresses that Fidesz would tilt unambiguously towards Atlanticism, increase cooperation in the Visegrad group and bolster support for Hungarians living in neighboring states.
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Romanian Reformers Isolated
Published: 01 July 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Serban Popescu provides a read-out of last month’s local elections in Romania. Popescu notes that, while the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL) of President Basescu won the most mayoral offices, the party appears “politically isolated and unable to garner support for a minority government in the fall.”
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Russia Profits from the Iran Nuclear Standoff
Published: 16 June 2008
CEPA analyst Ryan R. Miller takes issue with those who suggest accommodating Russian interests on Europe's doorstep in exchange for Kremlin support in dealing with Iran. Miller contends that "Russia, to a certain extent, profits from the West’s ongoing standoff with Tehran, and thus may not be so easily tempted by any of these grand bargains."
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Role Models in 'New Europe'
Published: 16 June 2008
CEPA resident scholar Ondrej Schneider outlines the importance of Central European economies for U.S. exporters, noting the contrast between "new" Europe and the "old." He asserts that "If Western Europeans imitated their neighbors’ pro-growth reforms, demand for U.S. products would likely surge."
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Topolanek's Topple?
Published: 16 June 2008
Jiří Pehe from New York University in Prague overviews the problems plaguing the government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek. "If the government does manage to survive until the scheduled 2010 elections, it will be weak and inefficient," he asserts. Pehe predicts that parliamentary rejection of the U.S.-Czech missile defense treaty would severely hurt the governing coalition.
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Putin's Peaceniks in Prague?
Published: 16 June 2008
Professor Petr Suchý from Masaryk University discusses the debate in the Czech Republic regarding the placement of a U.S. missile defense radar on Czech soil. Suchý draws historical parallels between today's “peaceniks” and those protesting American missile deployments in the 1980s. Disturbingly, he suggests, the hand of the Kremlin may not be far away.
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