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Lithuanian Politics with a Russian Flavor?
Published: 01 October 2008
CEPA analyst Ryan R. Miller throws the spotlight on Lithuanian politics and potential sources of Russian influence in that country. He describes how populist parties with past links to Russia are polling well ahead of the October 12 parliamentary elections. Moving forward, Miller urges Lithuania to minimize the risk of state-capture by diversifying its energy supplies and fighting corruption at home.
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Slovakia's Roma: Ready for the Euro?
Published: 01 October 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Kristina Mikulová describes the economic and social challenges confronting Slovakia’s Roma community and argues that, with the Euro only three months away, the government would do well to step up its Euro information campaign among the Roma. Mikulová suggests that relying on Roma-targeted theatre performances sponsored by the Central Bank is not a sufficient strategy to head off the risk of possible protests.
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After Georgia: Reassessing the Geopolitical Scoreboard
Published: 01 October 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Denis P. Cosgrove takes on the following question in the wake of the Georgia crisis last August: what has Russia won? He argues that, despite several setbacks for the West, the Kremlin does not have much to show for its efforts. Cosgrove characterizes the August War not as the first step towards renewed Russian dominance, but as “a last-gasp attempt to stop the steady eastward march of NATO and the EU.”
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Central Europe: Why Self-Help is Best
Published: 15 September 2008
Doug Bandow, a former advisor to President Ronald Reagan, argues that Central Europeans might be on their own when it comes to national defense. Suggesting that NATO's defense guarantee is unclear, Bandow proposes that countries in the region coordinate on creating a conventional deterrent to the Russian military.
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Baltic Criminality Below the Radar
Published: 15 September 2008
Emily Green from Georgetown University suggests that criminality in the Baltic region often does not receive the attention that it warrants. She claims that "criminality in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania remains robust and well-organized," and describes how the Baltic States continue to appear near the top of various measurements of crime and corruption in Europe.
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Romania and Ukraine in the Hague
Published: 15 September 2008
Robert Uzuna from Cambridge University outlines the Romanian-Ukrainian dispute over the delimitation of the continental shelf in the Black Sea. Not surprisingly, he describes, energy geopolitics figure prominently in the dispute. Uzuna also sees the territorial quarrel as a "juridical sore" that should be removed to make way for greater mutually beneficial cooperation.
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Romania's Black Sea Offensive
Published: 15 September 2008
Bucharest-based analyst George Visan describes Romania's diplomatic reaction to the Russia-Georgia war last August. He argues that Romania was not upstaged by Poland and the Baltic States, merely that it chose a different avenue by which to make clear to Moscow that the “August War” ran counter to Romanian interests.
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How to Respond to Russia?
Published: 29 August 2008
Jan Techau from the German Council on Foreign Relations explains that, when formulating a response to Russia, the United States and Europe should take into consideration Russia’s fears as well as its sources of power. Techau calls for a “careful dispensing” of further NATO membership, and insists that Europe liberalize its energy markets and tap into new sources of energy in order to check Russia’s energy grip on the continent.
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Russia's Passportpolitik: Implications for the Baltic States
Published: 29 August 2008
Russia watcher Igor Khrestin looks at what Moscow’s decision to assist its “compatriots” in Georgia might mean for the Baltic States. Khrestin explains that, while the situation with ethnic Russians and Russian passport holders in Estonia and Latvia do not present a geopolitical tinderbox on par with South Ossetia, “Baltic leaders are now officially put on notice.”
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Implications of the U.S-Polish Defense Pact
Published: 29 August 2008
Security consultant William Schirano argues that the mutual defense commitment contained in the recently-signed U.S-Polish missile defense pact could cause headaches for U.S. policy makers. “Among the remaining NATO members (especially those that happen to be closest to the Russian sphere) the deal between the United States and Poland is certain to call into question whether some allies are more important to defend than others,” he suggests.
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Russian Energy is Europe's Achilles' Heel
Published: 29 August 2008
Jonathan Hayes from Jane’s Strategic Advisory Services details how West European states – Italy and Germany in particular – have become coy due to their material dependence on Russian energy. “By pursing national energy security independently, Italy and Germany are compromising the influence Europe wields vis-à-vis Russia” he claims. Hayes calls for a common European energy policy.
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America's New Eastern Problem
Published: 15 August 2008
A. Wess Mitchell from CEPA reacts to the recent war between Russia and Georgia, and argues that the United States should shift its entire Europe-based military establishment eastward. Making better use of U.S. military assets "could help to ensure that, when the next crisis arises, we are able - unlike today - to deal with Moscow from a position of strength," Mitchell suggests.
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South Ossetia Crisis Shows that Georgia Needed MAP
Published: 15 August 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Michael Williams throws the spotlight on the fallout resulting from NATO's decision at the Bucharest summit last April to not extend Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP). "If NATO extended a hand to Georgia, it would have deterred the Russians from getting aggressive and given the West leverage with which to pressure Saakashvili to address the South Ossetia and Abkhazia problems responsibly," he claims.
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Revisiting Territorial Defense for Central Europe?
Published: 15 August 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Neil Barnett suggests the time has come to revisit the way NATO countries in Central Europe manage their military postures. Rather than focusing on military deployments to faraway lands like Afghanistan, Barnett posits that countries' armed forces should be "reoriented towards territorial defense in the NATO context."
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Ukraine's NATO Accession: Politics as Usual
Published: 15 August 2008
Russia/Eurasia analyst Igor Khrestin argues that the real obstacle to Ukraine's membership in NATO is indecisiveness and instability within the "Orange" Coalition. Khrestin overviews the domestic political context and concludes that "Those lambasting Berlin and Paris would do well to re-direct some of their criticism towards Kiev itself."
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Missile Defense: American Arrogance and Polish Squabbling
Published: 01 August 2008
Marcin Bosacki, chief U.S. correspondent for Poland's Gazeta Wyborcza, outlines how we got to this gloomy point in U.S.-Polish missile defense negotiations. Bosacki argues that both sides made mistakes along the way and posits that, moving forward, Warsaw will likely hold off on any agreement until a new U.S. Administration is in office.
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The Eastern Partnership: Poland's (Potentially) Historic Opportunity
Published: 01 August 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Denis P. Cosgrove says that Poland must seize the opportunities presented by the EU's approval of the Eastern Partnership Initiative. "The Poles have an historic opportunity to shape the economic, political, and security landscape to the East for decades to come," Cosgrove claims. He urges Warsaw to focus on leveraging the Eastern Partnership to create an environment conducive to Ukraine's entry into NATO.
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A Note on Education Policy in Central Europe
Published: 01 August 2008
Krzysztof Błędowski, President of the National Economists Club, urges the Visegrad states to boost educational attainment in order to make better use of their labor forces and thus accelerate economic growth. Błędowski contends that Central Europeans should seek "forward looking formulas" targeted at the young, rather than channeling resources towards re-training existing workers.
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Germany's Baltic Betrayal
Published: 15 July 2008
CEPA analyst Ryan R. Miller throws the spotlight on the planned Nord Stream pipeline in the Baltic Sea. On the heels of last week's vote in the European Parliament (EP), Miller contends that the EP's focus on environmental issues masks Germany's Baltic betrayal of Central European interests. "Put bluntly, Nord Stream is a politically-motivated project designed by Moscow to squeeze Poland and the Baltic States," he asserts.
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Principled Pragmatism: Germany and NATO Expansion
Published: 15 July 2008
Dr. Patrick Keller of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Berlin argues that Germany's reluctance to grant MAP to Ukraine and Georgia should not be seen as a break with past policies, but rather as a response to changing international circumstances. He describes how a new Russia, a new geopolitical environment for Germany, and a new NATO combine to alter Berlin's attitudes towards further enlargement of the Atlantic alliance.
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Nearing a Nabucco-South Stream Merger?
Published: 15 July 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Neil Barnett posits that OMV’s decision last month to join South Stream could indicate that a Nabucco-South Stream merger is in the cards. Barnett warns that "The geopolitical implications of this growing Russian influence over Black Sea supply routes are troubling at a time when Russia’s actions and rhetoric towards Europe are increasingly bellicose."
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Lisbon Champions vs. Central European Grumblers
Published: 15 July 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Marek Świerczyński decribes how the Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty exposes divisions between the EU’s Franco-German engine and leaders in Poland and the Czech Republic. "When the smoke cleared after June 12, neither of the two Visegrad states was truly saddened by the result," Świerczyński asserts.
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Why Missile Defense is Here to Stay
Published: 01 July 2008
A. Wess Mitchell from CEPA explains why the next U.S. president, regardless of party, will understand that having a missile shield based partly in Central Europe will compliment U.S. policy towards Iran. “While keeping MD may not dramatically increase the odds that a diplomatic breakthrough [with Tehran] will occur, taking it off the table increases the odds that it won’t,” Mitchell asserts.
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The Missile Defense Distraction
Published: 01 July 2008
Peter I. Belk argues that planned missile defense sites in Central Europe are a distraction from the task of stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons – and the need to bring Russia fully on board. “By taking the high ground on missile defense, the United States can further expose the weakness of the Russian argument on Iran, while at the same time striving for a more cooperative posture with Moscow,” he contends.
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A New Phase in Hungary's Foreign Policy?
Published: 01 July 2008
Géza Jeszenszky, a former Hungarian Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the United States, outlines what Hungarian foreign policy would look like under a conservative Fidesz government. Among other points, Jeszenszky stresses that Fidesz would tilt unambiguously towards Atlanticism, increase cooperation in the Visegrad group and bolster support for Hungarians living in neighboring states.
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Romanian Reformers Isolated
Published: 01 July 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Serban Popescu provides a read-out of last month’s local elections in Romania. Popescu notes that, while the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL) of President Basescu won the most mayoral offices, the party appears “politically isolated and unable to garner support for a minority government in the fall.”
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Russia Profits from the Iran Nuclear Standoff
Published: 16 June 2008
CEPA analyst Ryan R. Miller takes issue with those who suggest accommodating Russian interests on Europe's doorstep in exchange for Kremlin support in dealing with Iran. Miller contends that "Russia, to a certain extent, profits from the West’s ongoing standoff with Tehran, and thus may not be so easily tempted by any of these grand bargains."
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Role Models in 'New Europe'
Published: 16 June 2008
CEPA resident scholar Ondrej Schneider outlines the importance of Central European economies for U.S. exporters, noting the contrast between "new" Europe and the "old." He asserts that "If Western Europeans imitated their neighbors’ pro-growth reforms, demand for U.S. products would likely surge."
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Topolanek's Topple?
Published: 16 June 2008
Jiří Pehe from New York University in Prague overviews the problems plaguing the government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek. "If the government does manage to survive until the scheduled 2010 elections, it will be weak and inefficient," he asserts. Pehe predicts that parliamentary rejection of the U.S.-Czech missile defense treaty would severely hurt the governing coalition.
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Putin's Peaceniks in Prague?
Published: 16 June 2008
Professor Petr Suchý from Masaryk University discusses the debate in the Czech Republic regarding the placement of a U.S. missile defense radar on Czech soil. Suchý draws historical parallels between today's “peaceniks” and those protesting American missile deployments in the 1980s. Disturbingly, he suggests, the hand of the Kremlin may not be far away.
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Tusk's Missile Defense Dilemma
Published: 02 June 2008
Polish journalist Marek Świerczyński describes how, in missile defense negotiations with Washington, Prime Minister Donald Tusk is managing a delicate balancing act between political opponents on both the Left and Right. "Mr. Tusk finds himself between a rock and a hard place politically, and any decision he takes will be hotly contested at home," Świerczyński contends.
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Slovak Media Law Constrains Freedom of the Press
Published: 02 June 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Kristina Mikulová argues that Slovakia's new Press Act, which entered into effect on June 1, is a slap in the face to media freedom. The new law, she asserts, "signals that Mečiar’s legacy – albeit in a watered-down form – still lingers in Slovak politics."
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Hungary's Reform Deficit
Published: 02 June 2008
Ahead of Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány's policy meeting next week, CEPA Associate Scholar Roman R. Kessler overviews how "the evolving political dynamic in Hungary is sadly a handicap to much needed economic reforms." Kessler asserts that a strong government will be required to keep Hungarian economic policy on the right course, but offers few reasons to be optimistic.
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The EU's Medvedev Moment
Published: 15 May 2008
Fraser Cameron from the EU-Russia Centre in Brussels says last week's changeover in the Kremlin presents an opportunity for Europe to work with a "fresh face" in Moscow. "Now is the time to make a special effort to advance EU-Russia relations," he asserts.
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Lithuania's Lonely Gambit
Published: 15 May 2008
CEPA analyst Ryan R. Miller reflects on recent Lithuanian attempts to hold up talks with Moscow on a new EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. Miller suggests Lithuania's veto never stood a chance given present circumstances. "Lithuania’s lonely gambit was a bold stone-throw against the Goliath to the East at a time when many in Europe are hoping for a diplomatic thaw with Russia," he contends.
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Bulgaria: Between a Pipeline and a Hard Place
Published: 15 May 2008
Dafina Nikolova Doran of Georgetown University discusses pipeline issues in Southeastern Europe. Doran posits that "Bulgaria looks set to reap the benefits of its central location in an unfolding West vs. East game of pipeline politics."
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The Rise and Fall of Poland's Iran Option
Published: 01 May 2008
Amid growing concern in U.S. policy circles about European gas deals in Iran, Polish journalist Marek Świerczyński comments on possible Polish-Iranian gas cooperation. He characterizes PGNiG’s recent preliminary deal to develop Iranian gas fields as a “bold unilateral move” by the Polish state-run corporation, and predicts that Donald Tusk’s government will look for ways to bury its Iran option. “In the geopolitics of Central Europe’s energy security, Iran could be the Ace in the Hole, but for now it’s a Joker,” Świerczyński claims.
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Interview with MOL Chairman Zsolt Hernádi
Published: 01 May 2008
Zsolt Hernádi, Chairman of Hungarian oil and gas firm MOL, sat down with independent journalist and CEPA Associate Scholar Neil Barnett in Budapest on April 25 for a conversation about the proposed OMV-MOL merger. The most recent battle was won by MOL during the company’s shareholder meeting in April. Riding the tide of this success, Hernádi insists that OMV’s proposed merger will not work and asserts that “if someone should make a takeover, MOL should take OMV.”
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Estonia: NATO's Cyber-Warrior
Published: 01 May 2008
Ryan P. Kaiser discusses Estonia’s role in shaping NATO cyber-defense policy. Outlining emerging cyber-threats and explaining how Estonia is carving out cyber-defense as a niche capability within an-ever expanding alliance, Kaiser asserts that NATO would do well to listen to Estonian policy proposals. “If the Alliance truly wants to protect its members, it will have to overcome political resistance and allow Article V to apply to cyber security,” he maintains.
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Superdelegates for the Czech Republic?
Published: 15 April 2008
Becky Zajdel from the University of Pittsburgh reflects on the February presidential elections in the Czech Republic and draws parallels with U.S. politics. Zajdel argues that direct presidential elections would have a positive impact on the Czech political system.
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Central Europe's Next Transition: Thinking Like Players, Not Pawns
Published: 15 April 2008
The geopolitical landscape of Central Europe, according to Denis P. Cosgrove, provides opportunities for regional capitals to assert their national interests when dealing with larger powers. "By comparing alternative strategic options, Central Europeans can establish a floor price for their adherence to Euro-Atlantic priorities," Cosgrove claims. He urges countries in the region to work harder to speak with one voice.
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Mid-Term Grade for the Slovene Presidency: "A"
Published: 15 April 2008
Roman R. Kessler, a Dow Jones Newswires correspondent, gives Slovenia high marks half way into the Alpine state's rotation at the EU helm. "Beyond all the sweet talk about how East and West are now one, Slovenia has been genuinely successful in shoring up pan-EU support for important long-term projects," Kessler asserts. The article overviews Slovenia's role in tackling such issues as the Western Balkans, economic reforms and the Lisbon Treaty.
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NATO Looks Towards the East
Published: 01 April 2008
On the eve of NATO's summit in Bucharest, Warsaw-based security analyst Łukasz Kulesa looks at the debate surrounding whether or not to extend Membership Action Plans to Ukraine or Georgia. Kulesa asserts that the alliance must start thinking about eastward enlargement "not as some grandiose geopolitical design, but in terms of each candidate’s readiness for membership, as well as NATO’s own capacity to integrate those countries."
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NATO's Southeastern Flank
Published: 01 April 2008
Medlir Mema of the George Washington University examines the NATO membership prospects for Albania, Croatia and Macedonia. Many countries back the membership bids of the "Adriatic 3," but Mema notes potential bumps in the road for Albania and Macedonia.
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Reaching the Caspian Through Ukraine
Published: 01 April 2008
Alexandros Petersen, Director of the Caspian Europe Center in Brussels, highlights two potential pipeline projects that could link Central Europe with Caspian energy resources via Ukraine. "EU leaders must work with Ukraine and other partners to help bring new pipelines through the country into being," Petersen contends.
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Interview with Nabucco Managing Director Reinhardt Mitschek
Published: 14 March 2008
Reinhardt Mitschek, Managing Director of Nabucco Gas Pipeline International, sat down with independent journalist and CEPA Associate Scholar Neil Barnett in Vienna last week to discuss the road ahead for the Brussels and Washington-backed Nabucco pipeline.
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Kosovo's Independence and U.S.-Romanian Relations
Published: 14 March 2008
Bucharest-based analyst George Visan looks at the fallout from Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence on Romanian foreign policy. While Visan says Bucharest’s stance on the issue does not represent a break with the United States he proposes that Washington should be on the lookout for a possible “cooling in the pro-American sentiment of the Romanian populace.”
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Bulgaria's Little Kosovo Problem
Published: 14 March 2008
Dafina Nikolova Doran reflects on Bulgaria’s feelings towards the newly-independent Balkan nation of Kosovo. Though Sofia has fallen into line with Washington and the majority of European capitals in recognizing Kosovo’s separation from Serbia, Doran suggests the Bulgarian position may be more complex than might be immediately obvious.
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Medvedev's Russia: The Business of Power and the Power of Business
Published: 29 February 2008
Russia analyst and CEPA Associate Scholar Peter B. Doran looks into the crystal ball ahead of this Sunday’s elections in Russia and notes that Russian policy is being pulled in different directions. “Moscow's assertive international posture will increasingly conflict with its desire to advance Russian business interests – particularly in the energy sphere,” Doran contends. Looking ahead, he proposes that “energy politics rather than military bravado will determine Russia's external policies towards Central and Eastern Europe.”
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New Realities in the Balkans
Published: 29 February 2008
Independent journalist Neil Barnett sees another game for geopolitical influence shaping up in the Balkans region among the United States, Russia and the European Union. “With violence on the whole contained, the Balkans are now becoming an arena for great power jockeying,” he asserts.
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The New Franco-Romanian Love Affair
Published: 29 February 2008
Serban Popescu, a CEPA Associate Scholar, reflects on French President Nicholas Sarkozy’s visit to Romania earlier this month. Popescu characterizes the “strategic partnership” signed as a “sea change” in Franco-Romanian relations, and says Romania will welcome French interest. “In a region where the EU is not yet ready to balance Russia's influence, Romania needs as many options open as possible,” Popescu writes.
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Nabucco: U.S. Confusion Plays Into Gazprom's Hands
Published: 15 February 2008
Independent journalist Neil Barnett highlights a number of obstacles facing the planned Nabucco pipeline, and argues that U.S. efforts to isolate Iran could jeopardize Europe’s chances of accessing non-Russian supplies of natural gas. “U.S. policy on this question is confused and self-defeating,” Barnett claims. Because Nabucco lacks committed supplies, Barnett suggests that the Western-backed pipeline could be forced to “merge” with Gazprom’s proposed South Stream project.
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Poland: Moving Beyond the Politics of Smiles
Published: 15 February 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Anna Nadgrodkiewicz overviews Donald Tusk’s foreign policy successes during the Prime Minister’s first 100 days in office. She argues that his government’s meetings in Washington and Moscow “achieved what could have been realistically hoped for: averting further deterioration in Polish-American relations and putting the icy Polish-Russian relationship on defrost.” Nadgrodkiewicz also notes that relations with Germany received a much-needed boost, and asserts that Tusk must now turn his attention to domestic reforms.
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Donald Tusk: Walking the Public Relations Tightrope
Published: 15 February 2008
As the first 100 days of Donald Tusk’s government in Poland wraps up, CEPA Associate Scholar Maciej Golubiewski suggests “Tusk and his team have been treading unevenly with a mix of bold but surprisingly careful policy steps.” Golubiewski looks at the areas of foreign affairs, public administration and health policy. He concludes that “the first months of the Tusk government, while effective from a public relations standpoint, have exposed the gap between the government’s rhetoric and actual change.”
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Gazprom's March Westward: Why Russian Intentions Shouldn't Matter
Published: 01 February 2008
CEPA Analyst Ryan R. Miller dives into the debate surrounding Russian motivations in the energy sphere, suggesting that whether commercial or political considerations drive Gazprom’s decision-making is irrelevant from a policy standpoint. Provocatively, Miller asserts that “telling the Poles that Russian energy policy is just business is like saying to some of Iran’s neighbors that the country’s nuclear ambitions are peaceful.” Miller urges U.S. and European policy makers to remain focused on getting Russia to liberalize its energy policies, and developing alternative sources of supply for Central Europe.
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Gazprom Actions in Central Europe Necessitate EU Caspian Strategy
Published: 01 February 2008
Alexandros Petersen from CSIS reflects on Russia’s recent energy deals with Bulgaria and Serbia. Petersen argues these developments highlight the need for Brussels to re-double its efforts to access Caspian energy resources. He suggests that the EU “move beyond its disconnected policies in the Caucuses and Central Asia to an approach that looks at the broader region through a single lens, and focuses on orienting these post-Soviet states towards Europe.”
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Poland: Addicted to Carbon
Published: 01 February 2008
Fulbright Scholar Adrian J. Erlinger takes aim at Poland’s hesitation to embrace the European Commission’s recently announced plans for creating a low-carbon economy in Europe. “Instead of rolling up its sleeves for yet another ‘tussle with Brussels,’ Poland first should admit that it is an unrepentant carbon junkie,” Erlinger claims.
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Europe's Energy Policy Is A Strategic Issue
Published: 15 January 2008
Alexandros Petersen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) discusses the consequences of Europe’s disunity in the energy sphere. “As Brussels attempts to place itself at the vanguard of sustainable, environmentally-friendly energy thinking, Moscow's divide-and-conquer policy of exclusive deals with particular states goes unchallenged,” Petersen contends. Unless European countries awaken to the challenge, he concludes, “Gazprom will continue its march into the continent, and Europe will continue to splinter.”
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Romania and Russia's Selective Transit Strategy
Published: 15 January 2008
CEPA Analyst Ryan R. Miller focuses the spotlight on Russian energy policy in Central Europe, highlighting the possibility that Gazprom’s latest pet pipeline project may skip Romania and pass through Serbia instead. Miller asserts such a development “carries political undertones, and is indicative of Russia’s new policy of only routing its pipelines through ‘friendly’ transit states.”
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Kosovo Through Central European Eyes
Published: 02 January 2008
Medlir Mema of the George Washington University examines Kosovo's expected statehood from the perspectives of Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. As Mema points out, each of these countries has "large minorities or diasporas on which the precedent set by any non-UN-sanctioned independence for Kosovo could have important, potentially long-lasting effects."
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Slovenia: EU Presidency Adds to Full Domestic Agenda
Published: 02 January 2008
As Slovenia takes the helm at the European Council, Dow Jones Newswire correspondent Roman R. Kessler brings us up to speed on the domestic and international challenges facing the center-right government of Prime Minister Janez Janša.
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Russia's CFE Moratorium
Published: 14 December 2007
Russia analyst Peter Doran looks at Moscow’s decision this week to formally suspend its participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. Doran characterizes the Russian move as “a bold attempt to re-negotiate the balance of forces on the continent.”
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Pseudo-Democracy at the Gates?
Published: 14 December 2007
On the heels of Russia's parliamentary elections, Denis P. Cosgrove concludes that Russia’s “pseudo-democracy” sets a bad example for Central and Eastern Europe. Cosgrove asserts, “If precautions are not taken, Russia’s relapse could create a domino effect of eroding democratic systems at the periphery of, and even within, Europe itself.” He spells out eight specific recommendations for combating the danger of pseudo-democratic systems.
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A Poland that Can Accept America's 'No'
Published: 14 December 2007
Dr. Olaf Osica from the Natolin European Centre in Warsaw provides a Polish Response to Doug Bandow’s November 30th article, “An America that Can Say No.” Osica takes on Bandow’s assertion that Washington should not make any concessions to the new Tusk government in missile defense negotiations. According to Osica, Warsaw is right to stand up for Polish interests.
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An America that Can Say No
Published: 30 November 2007
Former Ronald Reagan advisor Doug Bandow takes aim at the new Polish government’s tougher line in missile defense negotiations with the United States. Provocatively, Bandow claims that Poland’s importance to U.S. interests is overrated. “From America's standpoint,” he says, “Warsaw is a net security consumer, demanding more in protection for itself than it provides in protection for others.”
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Lessons from Poland: Reflections from Leszek Balcerowicz
Published: 30 November 2007
Dr. Leszek Balcerowicz, former Polish Central Bank Governor and CEPA Distinguished Fellow, reflects on political developments in Poland and presents observations relevant for other transitioning democracies. Dr. Balcerowicz touches upon the relationship between political upheaval and reform fatigue, anti-corruption campaigns and the importance of an independent media.
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Slovakia: Rolling Back Reforms After Euro Entry?
Published: 30 November 2007
CEPA Associate Scholar Kristina Mikulová examines the temptation of left-leaning Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to undo the country’s successful liberal reforms once he gets the single currency off his back. Recognizing the premier’s penchant for populism, Mikulová nonetheless concludes that the likelihood of such a move is relatively small. “Fico knows that the fulfillment of his pre-election promises would cost him more than he can afford to pay,” Mikulová maintains.
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Romania's Political Turbulence
Published: 15 November 2007
Serban Popescu, a Streit Council Research Fellow, analyzes political turmoil in Romania and last month's attempted vote of no confidence against the current minority government. Popescu notes how parliamentary rancor in Bucharest is impacting discussions on fiscal policy, elections to the European Parliament, and debate on Romania's place in EU affairs.
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The October 2007 Elections: A Victory for Liberal Poland?
Published: 15 November 2007
Washington and Lee University Professor Krzysztof Jasiewicz analyzes Polish voting patterns in last month's parliamentary elections. He argues that the election was a referendum on the outgoing PiS government, and explains the role that culturally-defined identities played in the elections. Jasiewicz concludes that political cleavages in Poland are here to stay, presenting further polarization as a "potential threat to the stability of the political system."
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Elections in Poland: Decisive Victory without a Clear Sense of Defeat
Published: 31 October 2007
CEPA Associate Scholar Maciej Golubiewski examines the factors that enabled the center-right Civic Platform (PO) to claim victory in the October 21st Polish parliamentary elections. With a strengthened presence in the Sejm, lack of competition on the right and continued occupation of the Presidency through 2010, Golubiewski argues that the outgoing Law and Justice Party (PiS) is likely to remain a permanent fixture of Polish politics.
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Continuity with New Accents: Poland's Foreign Policy after the Parliamentary Elections
Published: 31 October 2007
Olaf Osica of the Natolin European Centre in Warsaw challenges widely-held assumptions about PiS and PO foreign policy preferences. Due to a fundamental paradigm shift that took place in Polish strategic thinking under the Kaczyński government, he argues that the foreign policy of incoming Prime Minister Donald Tusk is unlikely to differ substantially from that of its predecessor.
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Kaczyński's Lost Gamble
Published: 31 October 2007
Poland analyst Anna Nadgrodkiewicz examines the likely impact of the elections on Poland’s relations with the EU, Germany and the United States. Though the new government faces resistance within its own coalition and from Polish President Lech Kaczyński, Nadgrodkiewicz sees in the election turnout and results a lasting repudiation of the PiS program of political warfare at home and diplomatic isolation abroad.
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Odessa-Brody: Poland's Entry into the New Great Game
Published: 15 October 2007
Incoming CEPA analyst Ryan R. Miller examines last week’s agreement to extend the Odessa-Brody pipeline to Poland. Though the new corridor still faces many political economic hurdles, Miller sees the latest stage in the project as a “pivotal success against Russia in the battle for control over Central Europe’s energy supplies.”
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Europe's Turkish Energy Gambit: Running Afoul of U.S. Policy on Iran?
Published: 15 October 2007
Russia analyst Peter Doran discusses ongoing Turkish and Austrian efforts to invest in Iranian gas production. As Doran points out, these deals could soon create a conflict between two key goals of current U.S. foreign policy, forcing Washington to “balance its support for European energy diversity against its policy of nuclear non-proliferation in Iran.”
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Speaking to Moscow by Way of Tehran
Published: 15 October 2007
Despite the evidence of diverging U.S. and European interests cited by Doran, foreign policy writer Denis P. Cosgrove sees reason for optimism in recent U.S.-European cooperation over Iran. By maintaining the common front forged in negotiations with Tehran, the United States and its European partners – including Poland and the Czech Republic – may reap a windfall on issues of mutual interest as diverse as energy security, Kosovo and missile defense.
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Central Europe Shows the Value of Competition
Published: 1 October 2007
European leaders should keep in mind the success of competition in Central Europe when debating the economic future of the European Union.
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Early Elections in Poland: The End of the Kaczyński Moment?
Published: 14 September 2007
Last week, the Polish government voted to dissolve itself in order to enable new elections, two years ahead of schedule. Yet there is no guarantee that the controversial Kaczyński government is near its end.
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Response to "Hungary's Directionless Foreign Policy"
Published: 1 September 2007
Dr. Géza Jeszenszky, former Hungarian Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the United States, responds to Zachary F. Wynne's article "Hungary's Directionless Foreign Policy."
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Hungary's Directionless Foreign Policy
Published: 15 August 2007
The lack of a coherent strategy makes Hungary’s international relationships vulnerable to populist domestic pressures, which can potentially harm the country’s standing in Europe. Hungarian policy-makers must establish concrete objectives that capitalize on the country’s unique geopolitical position.
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The Case for Increased American Investment in Romania
Published: 1 August 2007
The United States can deepen its relationship with Romania by promoting more Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which will send the signal to the Romanian people that Washington is committed to the betterment of its allies.
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The Case for German-Polish Rapprochement
Published: 16 July 2007
Germany and Poland should seek fundamental political rapprochement. With support from the United States, Warsaw and Berlin should devise a strategy for deepening bilateral ties and forestalling future conflict.
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Estonian Wonderland
Published: 01 July 2007
When I arrived in Tallinn, capital of Estonia, it had been 14 years since my last visit. Back then, in 1993, I had somehow obtained two tickets on the ferry boat MS Estonia, which tragically sank a year and a half later in the Baltic Sea. I went on this trip with a friend; our main purchases were cheap vodka and old Soviet army hats.
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Managing Eurozone Entry: Possible Policy Choices for the Czech Republic
Published: 15 June 2007
With the Czech Koruna gaining steadily on the euro over the last few years, entering the Eurozone would remove the country’s ability to control a major macroeconomic instrument—the national currency. What can be done to postpone the adoption of the single currency until conditions are right, and what are the risks in such a move?
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America's Allied Love Triangle
Published: 1 June 2007
News of Prime Minister Tony Blair's imminent retirement has led to a rash of speculation about who America's new best friend in Europe is likely to be. The lead candidates are Nicolas Sarkozy, France's new pro-American president, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
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Missile Defense and U.S.-Polish Relations
Published: 15 May 2007
The success of the forthcoming U.S. missile defense negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic depends on the willingness of the United States to broaden the dialogue beyond the requirement for status of forces and technical agreements.
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The Wrong Referendum for an Embattled President
Published: 01 May 2007
On April 19th, 322 members of the Romanian Parliament voted in favor of suspending President Traian Basescu on charges of breaching the Constitution, opening the door to an impeachment referendum. This has the potential to redefine presidential and parliamentary powers to the detriment of Romanian democracy.
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Winds of Change in Sofia: The New Bulgarian Right
Published: 13 Apr 2007
This paper looks at the rise of Boyko Borissov as a new force in Bulgarian politics, and how his party may change the political makeup in Sofia.
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Life after Balcerowicz: The Uncertain Future of Polish Monetary Policy
Published: 30 Mar 2007
At the beginning of this year, Leszek Balcerowicz stepped down as President of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). Thanks to his record, Balcerowicz's successors will inherit a strong starting point from which to build a successful monetary policy. How well they capitalize on this advantage will depend upon their willingness - and ability - to continue the momentum of the outgoing president's successful policies.
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Allies for Further Enlargement: Why Central Europe Supports Turkish Accession to the EU
Published: 15 Mar 2007
Given their experience with enlargement, Central Europe may prove to be the strongest proponents of Turkish Accession to the European Union.
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The Hungarian Right: Life Beyond Orbán?
Published: 01 Mar 2007
Right-wing Hungarian politics would not be the same without Viktor Orbán, but is it time for a change in leadership?
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