Lisbon Champions vs. Central European Grumblers

Posted: 15 July 2008

by Marek Świerczyński

The Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty exposes divisions between the EU’s Franco-German tandem and some of the Union’s newer members in Central Europe. While Paris and Berlin press for reviving the document, which is seen as a step towards a federalist Europe, elites in Warsaw and Prague quietly hope for the failure of any Lisbon “rescue operation,” preferring instead the current Nice Treaty.

In the wake of the Irish referendum, the EU proved again that it would rather wait through a problem than tackle it head-on. EU leaders failed to avert the treaty-sceptic mood, and, following the EU summit in Brussels, ended in stating the obvious – “we’re in trouble” – without showing a clear way out. But the “No” from Dublin also highlighted that it’s not Ireland that is the biggest opponent of the Treaty. Rather, it is the attitude of some in the Central European region, specifically the Czech Republic and Poland.

The Czechs and Poles owe a lot to the Irish. One of Europe’s smallest nations, Ireland did what a number of Central European newcomers would have gladly done themselves, but did not because they lacked the guts to start a fight with Germany. Poland fought a sharp but short battle during negotiations over the voting system, but was defeated. Smaller countries did not even try to dispute the treaty. But when the smoke cleared after June 12, neither of the two Visegrad states was truly saddened by the result.

While the Czechs openly suggest a slow-down in the EU’s transformation, including possibly postponing or even dropping the treaty altogether, the Poles keep a low profile and encourage respect for the Irish vote while being equally skeptical about Lisbon’s revival. A meeting of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Lech Kaczyński on the Irish referendum, planned prior to the Brussels summit, failed to materialize. Officially, this was attributed to a scheduling problem – the President was celebrating his (and his twin brother’s) 59th birthday instead of meeting Tusk. Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski stressed that there is no point in enforcing any decisions on Ireland, and that the EU should take its time in elaborating a way forward. Later, the three men at the top of Poland’s foreign policy were too preoccupied with missile defense negotiations to worry about the EU treaty

Importantly, the Irish vote caught Poland half-way through its ratification process. While the parliament approved the Lisbon Treaty in May, the president has not yet signed it, insisting that ratifying the treaty in Poland would be “pointless for the time being.” This upset a number of the ruling coalition’s parliamentarians, who drafted a resolution calling on Kaczyński to sign the text.

In previous weeks, the Polish President had explained that he was waiting for additional competence-sharing laws to be adopted before he signs. But Jarosław Kaczyński, his twin-brother, former Prime Minister and leader of the conservative Law and Justice Party, has already said the treaty is dead. As the summer holidays approach, the competence bill has yet to be drafted and the general climate does not favor quick moves. So it is likely the President will wait until the whole EU decides what to do next at the mid-October summit under the French presidency. Once proud of his negotiating effort and claiming to have secured great achievements for Poland, President Kaczyński may end up being one of the last heads of state to sign the Lisbon Treaty.

And he’s got a strong ally across the border in Prague. Czech President Václav Klaus – a renowned foe of EU federalism – rejoiced when he heard the news from Dublin. In an interview with the Czech press, Klaus stated that “the whole of Europe should thank the Irish people for slowing down the current erroneous processes towards more unification.” He added, “I thanked a few Irish personally.”

So Mr. Klaus outdid almost everyone in proclaiming the Lisbon Treaty’s demise, which his parliament has sent to the constitutional court for scrutiny in a move to postpone the decision as long as possible. In terms of a way forward, Klaus proclaimed that “the Lisbon treaty project ended with the Irish voters’ decision and its ratification cannot continue.”

The radical conservative president is more than happy to question the treaty’s relevance, which is officially supported by the more moderate government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek. But both leaders criticized the treaty and described it as a necessary evil rather than a cornerstone of the EU’s future. And as in Poland, the two Czech leaders seem to be more engaged in the transatlantic debate over missile defense than the future of the EU.

During the recent Brussels summit, Topolánek said he would not bet on a Czech “Yes” at this point – a statement that instantly put him in the limelight as a potential troublemaker. Responding to his remark, “old Europe” quickly fired a warning shot; French President Nikolas Sarkozy said adopting the Lisbon Treaty was a prerequisite to any further EU enlargement. Sarkozy knew his comment would infuriate the easterners, who are keen on expansion. In Warsaw or Prague his words sound an awful lot like Chirac’s infamous admonition to “shut up.” And indeed, Mr. Tusk said such comments were unacceptable and President Kaczyński used the beginning of the French rotating EU presidency on July 1 to slap Sarkozy by saying in a press interview that – contrary to the encouraging voices from Berlin, Paris and Brussels - he would take his time before signing the Lisbon Treaty This may only mark the beginning of a new crisis, based on hidden phobias, concealed divisions and deeply rooted distrust between Europe’s core and some of its newer members.

In short, the Irish referendum has encouraged both Poland and the Czech Republic to express their bad feelings about Lisbon – something that might be taboo otherwise. Entering the fifth year of their membership in the Union and encouraged by the Irish example, a number of Central European countries feel they’ve grown up enough to voice their displeasure with European integration. Being generally content with the current provisions of the Nice Treaty, which makes them relatively stronger vis-à-vis the EU’s bigger players, it may take a lot of time and money on the part of Lisbon champions to persuade the Central European grumblers.

Marek Świerczyński is a journalist at TVP in Poland.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Center for European Policy Analysis.