The EU's Medvedev Moment

Posted: 15 May 2008

by Fraser Cameron

Last week was a unique occasion in Russian history. Never before has a healthy leader left the Kremlin voluntarily to take up another political job. After taking office as President of Russia on May 7, the world will now be watching for signs that Dmitry Medvedev can act independently of his mentor, Vladimir Putin, who has assumed the position of Prime Minister. In any event, the EU should welcome the opportunity to work with a fresh face in Moscow.

At present, no one can answer the question of how well the Medvedev-Putin tandem will work together. A number of scenarios are being discussed in Moscow: Putin as the power behind the throne; Putin concentrating on domestic policies and leaving foreign policy to Medvedev; Putin returning to the Kremlin after four years; Putin leaving to establish his own foundation (like Bill Clinton) and to enjoy the role of elder statesman. And so on.

Clearly, Medvedev’s elevation had much to do with the fact that he was acceptable to the various Kremlin clans. In-fighting is nothing new among Russian leaders, but the current lack of transparency makes it difficult to assess who is up and who is down. The West will anxiously watch to see whether the new president is an independent force or remains in Putin's shadow. One theory doing the rounds in Moscow is that Medvedev might pardon Michael Khodorkovsky, the former CEO of Yukos, jailed in what many consider to be a politicized trial.

What kind of president will Medvedev be? Most analysts agree there will definitely be a change of style and rhetoric – even if no substantive policy changes. The West has been encouraged by many of Medvedev’s statements, including his inauguration speech, in which he talked about the importance of the rule of law, the need to diversify the economy, fight corruption and reduce the role of the state. With his legal background, there is reason to believe that the new president means what he says. Ultimately, however, the world will judge the new Russian leader on his deeds and not just his words.

How should the West treat Medvedev? After a twenty-minute meeting in Sochi last month, President Bush declared him a “sound fella.” But then, George Bush’s judgment of world leaders has often been found wanting. Angela Merkel, the first EU leader to visit Medvedev after his election victory, was more cautious. She called for a united EU stance towards Russia.

Medvedev takes office just a few weeks before the EU-Russia summit in Siberia on June 26. For now, the ball is in the EU’s court as to its importance and likely success. Talks on a mandate to open negotiations for a new EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) stalled for nearly two years because of Polish and, until recently, Lithuanian objections.

If the EU manages to get its act together, next month’s summit could see the start of long and difficult negotiations. Although EU-Russia relations suffer from many bilateral problems, the fact is that the EU and Russia are becoming more and more inter-dependent. Put bluntly, the EU needs Russian oil and gas, while Russia needs European help to diversify its economy. Russia loses more gas every year to “flaring” – burning off unwanted gas – than the entire nation of France consumes. Improving energy efficiency is an obvious area where both sides should be able to work out a win-win package. EU know-how could also be useful for Russia in tackling its many social ills, from a disintegrating health service to growing regional disparities of wealth. The EU needs to negotiate with Russia as it is and not as it would like it to be. This does not mean that the EU should neglect issues of democracy, human rights and the rule of law, but it should hold Russia to its existing international legal obligations, especially in the OSCE and the Council of Europe.

The Union should also be more self-confident in dealing with Russia on a number of fronts. Its economy is ten times bigger than that of Russia. Gazprom gets 70 percent of its profits from sales to Europe and is thus highly dependent on the European market. There are signs that Russian oil production has now peaked. Russia wants visa-free travel and access to the EU’s internal market and educational and scientific programs. In short, the EU has strong chips with which to bargain. But these won’t work if Europe fails to speak with a common voice towards Russia.

It is unfortunate that negotiations on a new PCA were stymied by bilateral disputes, first from Poland and then Lithuania. Many states have bilateral problems with Russia, but holding the EU to ransom is not the way to proceed. It undermines the Union’s credibility as an actor on the international stage. The EU’s Central European members are right to highlight the authoritarian trends in Russia, but this should not lead to paralysis or Russia’s isolation.

With Medvedev moving into the Kremlin, now is the time to make a special effort to advance EU-Russia relations. Many of Medvedev’s priorities are shared by the EU. The question is can and will the new president deliver?

Fraser Cameron is Director of the EU-Russia Centre in Brussels.  

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Center for European Policy Analysis.