65th Annual Meeting of the Polish Institute of Arts and Sciences of America
"Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic: Getting Away from the Past"
June 15, 2007
Comments by Michael Wyganowski
Polish – German Relations: The Wider Context
I. History
At the risk of sounding obvious let me state that Poles and Germans have lived in the same neighborhood for over a thousand years. However due to the developments in the more recent past, let’s say the last two hundred years and the birth of nationalism in the XIX century, the perception of this relationship has been skewed. Public opinion especially in Poland views this relationship as predominantly adversarial. Allow me to offer a different view. Well known historical events listed below are interpreted as solid prove of conflict that predominated the Polish –German relations. However in reality they actually show something very different.
In recorded history both countries, states political entities and populations lived side by side cooperated and engaged in conflicts in no different way then other European entities in the south and west of the continent.
- Fundamental decision to “unite” Poland with Christianity in 966 was made based on political calculation involving Germany. Polish church to a large extent had connection to the hierarchy of its western neighbor(s)
- First Polish historical battle was fought over influence in the borderland on the Oder River against the local German ruler. This battle was recorded what is less publicized is the peaceful relationships that the Polish dynasty had with its neighbors (the sculpture of the smiling princes in one of the medieval churches in Saxony).
- In the year 1000 the German Emperor Otto III and the Polish Prince Boleslaw met in Gniezno (today we would call it a summit) to celebrate the close relations of their respective countries
- Polish cities where founded by Germans on the German Law as were the local villages
- Teutonic nights where invited to Poland to help the local prince to settle and defend the borders of his principality. In the three hundred years or so of the relationship between the Order and Poland conflicts were only a part of the picture. In the ill fated campaign of King Olbracht the only ally defending the royal forced in the Bukovina ravines was the grand Master of that Order. The Lithuanians never showed up.
- In the struggle for the May 3rd constitution Polish King counted on Frederic II for support in an attempt to modernize the country.
II. How both sides see each other?
German press is very critical of Poland. However the Chancellor and to some extent the elites have come to the conclusion that Poland is an important neighbor despite its present infantile policies. Merkel has to be praised for her attempts to soothe the ruffled feathers of the polish side and for attempt to engage the polish leadership in a deeper dialog on the future of the relationship. Germany has matured to the level that it can see in Poland a future strategic partner.
On the other hand the German society in general has not warmed up to the Polish neighbor. Mentality of Germans has not changed in this respect. A negative view of Poles still predominates among the German people.
Within the Polish leadership a German phobia is prevalent. Western neighbor is viewed through historic lens mainly WWII (sometimes one has the felling that the Warsaw uprising was fought yesterday). Germany is viewed as a threat to Poland. This view has no base in reality and the only substantive issue that divides Poland and Germany is the Baltic pipeline. Even though it has not been a Merkel idea the Chancellor has not distanced herself from the project. Present day polish elites don’t seem to notice something that was so well described by Zbigniew Brzezinski in a statement that “Poland reemerged as an independent player in international relations at the time when Germany was ready to accept Warsaw as a full partner”.
Unlike those in power the Polish society has a much more positive view of the Germans. Poles asked if they would welcome a German in their family overwhelmingly respond yes. One could argue that a lot has changed in the perception of ordinary Poles of their German neighbors. However historical sentiments still exist especially among the older generation.
III. Polish-German Relations
Poland’s German policy is a European policy. Warsaw’s anti EU policies hurt Polish- German relations. Defending the sovereignty of nations within the EU context has to be read as an attempt to weaken Germany. Belief that the voting system is the key to the influence in the EU is misplaced. Less integrated Europe of sovereign states leaves Poland to confront the powers on the continent without the support of the European institutions. At present Poland sees itself as part of Europe of sovereign states with its influence strengthen by US support (special relationship with the United States – expressed in a bilateral Treaty). Warsaw hopes that in its policies Washington will back Poland not Germany. This type of approach will marginalize Poland in the European game.
Germany under Merkel is attempting to instill more dynamism into EU wide policies. She is willing to pay a price for Polish support in this respect. The German Chancellor has proved that she is not disinclined to make compromises.
Currently Poland is isolated in Europe. No one fells threatened by Germany. There is no support for Polish policies in the EU. The only exception is the maverick president of the Czech Republic (but not the government). Prague will not die for Nice. Sticking to this policy Warsaw can only back itself into the corner which may lead to vetoing the future European Treaty. This would further undermine the relationship between Poland and Germany and the EU.
In addition one should not forget about Russia. Berlin has strong historic and economic ties to Moscow. Germany depends and will depend on Russia for the energy resources. Substantial diversification is just not possible. Russia will be the main supplier of energy resources to Europe for some time to come. Thanks to his recent policy Putin has made it difficult for Germany to strengthen its relationship with Russia. Berlin can’t and does not want to accommodate Kremlins more aggressive policies. However it is not inconceivable that in the future Moscow will be more inclined to moderate its policies making accommodations with Berlin more palatable.
IV. What now?
There is a demand (especially in Germany) for a constructive Polish foreign and domestic policy. It is fairly easy to destroy what has been already achieved by Poland since the country regained independence in 1989. So far Europe and Germany in particular has expressed solidarity with Warsaw’s policies. How long will that last? If the approach of Poland to its western neighbor and the EU in general does not change Poland’s European partners will ultimately chose their national interests over solidarity with the outlier.
It is important to ask what ideals the Polish government refers to in its policies. If domestically it rejects the legacy of the independent Poland (1989-2004) a period of fundamental successes in the transformation process and reintegration with the West foreign observers might come to the conclusion that Poland ceased to be a predictable and reliable partner.
If there is no change of policies coming out of Warsaw we can expect weakening of Polish position in Europe and worse relations with Berlin and Paris.
So what should the Polish government do?
- refrain from antagonizing Germany
- intensify the bilateral dialogue in the spirit of cooperation
- work to strengthen the European Institutions
- do not exaggerate the criticism leveled by the German press and some politicians at the Polish leadership
- do not overestimate the power of radical groups especially those representing the expelled
The future of relationship with Washington is also uncertain. Recent change of leadership at the helm in the main European powers created a dynamic conducive to reengagement by Washington with France and Germany. Old Europe and New Europe is quickly becoming history. For the US government bad Polish-German relations create a dilemma and do not bid well for strengthening link between Warsaw and Washington. United States looks to Poland for a leadership in the region and constructive pro-atlanticist policies in the EU.
Frequently US government officials state that the more influence Poland has in the EU the better the relationship with Washington will be. Washington will not deal seriously with an outsider without any influence within the councils of Europe.
V. Global perspective
Polish Foreign and Security policy in general and its approach to Germany in particular have to take into account the reality of the ongoing global geo-strategic changes. The world is becoming multipolar with new important emerging or reemerging power centers which where largely absent during the Cold War and in the 1990’s. Certain organizing principles that served the US well during the Cold War like the “Containment” and “Roll- Back” doctrines have completely lost relevance. Others like MAD or “Deterrence” are less useful than in the past. The United States is facing a challenge of developing a new approach to the world based on the changed strategic reality of the beginning of the XXI century. The debate in this regard has already begun. Part of the thinking is evolving in the direction of reassessment of the alliance concept. The idea is to supplement the existing thinking about the alliances focused on NATO and bilateral relationships with UK, Israel, Japan and South Korea with a wider network of allies in the crucial, from the American perspective, parts of the world. This concept provides an opportunity for mid size powers like Poland to play a more significant role as a US partner and an ally. In order for Warsaw to be able to fulfill this role (if US foreign policy actually goes in this direction), which by the way I believe would certainly be beneficial, Poland has to meet certain conditions:
- sustain the willingness to play a more global role
- show the ability to lead in the region
- develop a respectable economic base for foreign policy
- develop appropriate military capabilities
- play an important and constructive role within the EU and establish close links with main European powers
This last point addresses the issue of Polish-German relations. Without trust and cooperation between Warsaw and Berlin this greater Polish role in the changing global environment of the XXI century will not be possible.