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Lithuanian Politics with a Russian Flavor?
Published: 01 October 2008
CEPA analyst Ryan R. Miller throws the spotlight on Lithuanian politics and potential sources of Russian influence in that country. He describes how populist parties with past links to Russia are polling well ahead of the October 12 parliamentary elections. Moving forward, Miller urges Lithuania to minimize the risk of state-capture by diversifying its energy supplies and fighting corruption at home.
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Slovakia's Roma: Ready for the Euro?
Published: 01 October 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Kristina Mikulová describes the economic and social challenges confronting Slovakia’s Roma community and argues that, with the Euro only three months away, the government would do well to step up its Euro information campaign among the Roma. Mikulová suggests that relying on Roma-targeted theatre performances sponsored by the Central Bank is not a sufficient strategy to head off the risk of possible protests.
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After Georgia: Reassessing the Geopolitical Scoreboard
Published: 01 October 2008
CEPA Associate Scholar Denis P. Cosgrove takes on the following question in the wake of the Georgia crisis last August: what has Russia won? He argues that, despite several setbacks for the West, the Kremlin does not have much to show for its efforts. Cosgrove characterizes the August War not as the first step towards renewed Russian dominance, but as “a last-gasp attempt to stop the steady eastward march of NATO and the EU.”
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Central Europe: Why Self-Help is Best
Published: 15 September 2008
Doug Bandow, a former advisor to President Ronald Reagan, argues that Central Europeans might be on their own when it comes to national defense. Suggesting that NATO's defense guarantee is unclear, Bandow proposes that countries in the region coordinate on creating a conventional deterrent to the Russian military.
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Baltic Criminality Below the Radar
Published: 15 September 2008
Emily Green from Georgetown University suggests that criminality in the Baltic region often does not receive the attention that it warrants. She claims that "criminality in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania remains robust and well-organized," and describes how the Baltic States continue to appear near the top of various measurements of crime and corruption in Europe.
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Romania and Ukraine in the Hague
Published: 15 September 2008
Robert Uzuna from Cambridge University outlines the Romanian-Ukrainian dispute over the delimitation of the continental shelf in the Black Sea. Not surprisingly, he describes, energy geopolitics figure prominently in the dispute. Uzuna also sees the territorial quarrel as a "juridical sore" that should be removed to make way for greater mutually beneficial cooperation.
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Romania's Black Sea Offensive
Published: 15 September 2008
Bucharest-based analyst George Visan describes Romania's diplomatic reaction to the Russia-Georgia war last August. He argues that Romania was not upstaged by Poland and the Baltic States, merely that it chose a different avenue by which to make clear to Moscow that the “August War” ran counter to Romanian interests.
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How to Respond to Russia?
Published: 29 August 2008
Jan Techau from the German Council on Foreign Relations explains that, when formulating a response to Russia, the United States and Europe should take into consideration Russia’s fears as well as its sources of power. Techau calls for a “careful dispensing” of further NATO membership, and insists that Europe liberalize its energy markets and tap into new sources of energy in order to check Russia’s energy grip on the continent.
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Russia's Passportpolitik: Implications for the Baltic States
Published: 29 August 2008
Russia watcher Igor Khrestin looks at what Moscow’s decision to assist its “compatriots” in Georgia might mean for the Baltic States. Khrestin explains that, while the situation with ethnic Russians and Russian passport holders in Estonia and Latvia do not present a geopolitical tinderbox on par with South Ossetia, “Baltic leaders are now officially put on notice.”
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Implications of the U.S-Polish Defense Pact
Published: 29 August 2008
Security consultant William Schirano argues that the mutual defense commitment contained in the recently-signed U.S-Polish missile defense pact could cause headaches for U.S. policy makers. “Among the remaining NATO members (especially those that happen to be closest to the Russian sphere) the deal between the United States and Poland is certain to call into question whether some allies are more important to defend than others,” he suggests.
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Russian Energy is Europe's Achilles' Heel
Published: 29 August 2008
Jonathan Hayes from Jane’s Strategic Advisory Services details how West European states – Italy and Germany in particular – have become coy due to their material dependence on Russian energy. “By pursing national energy security independently, Italy and Germany are compromising the influence Europe wields vis-à-vis Russia” he claims. Hayes calls for a common European energy policy.
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